Quote:
Originally Posted by Five-hole
Okay, good point. I'm pretty fuzzy on these stats. So, if our PDO regresses that means we'll probably win less games / X games than we are now. Makes sense.
But why is everyone so convinced our PDO will regress? No one is talking about Pittsburgh's PDO regressing. (This point has been made in this thread already.) Because we're playing better than people expected. The argument, if I understand it, is that it doesn't seem like we're winning more games than we should based on PDO. It's that our PDO isn't what it should be because people expected us to be bad.
And if that's the argument, then the analysis is backward.
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Pittsburgh's PDO will regress unless they have a season that is unprecedented. However, with their goal differential, it likely means less to their winning percentage. One more goal against here and there and one fewer for them here and there isn't going to make a much of a difference to their winning percentage when they out shoot and outscore opponents by as much as they are. Plus, they've proven that a high save% and high shooting% is actually the norm for them (though nowhere near the height they're currently at).