Quote:
Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist
If your PDO regresses it means a higher percentage of shots against are going in your net and/or fewer of your shots are going in. Last time I checked, goals for and against strongly correlate with winning percentage.
Mirtle has no bias here. He wrote these same things about other teams
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Okay, good point. I'm pretty fuzzy on these stats. So, if our PDO regresses that means we'll probably win less games / X games than we are now. Makes sense.
But why is everyone so convinced our PDO will regress? No one is talking about Pittsburgh's PDO regressing. (This point has been made in this thread already.) Because we're playing better than people expected. The argument, if I understand it, is that it doesn't seem like we're winning more games than we should based on PDO. It's that our PDO isn't what it should be because people expected us to be bad.
And if that's the argument, then the analysis is backward.