Quote:
Originally Posted by New Era
Commensurate understanding of statistics? I was polite enough to explain to you why these stats are crap, and identified the very reasons they are junk, but the best you have is to come back and insult someone by telling them they don't have commensurate understanding of the subject, without any explanation of your own. That takes some real brass ones. I suspect you don't have the comprehensive knowledge of statistics you like to advertise and the claim of people not understanding them is nothing more than your defense mechanism to prevent that disclosure. If this isn't accurate, please prove otherwise by giving me that 600 level class in advanced statistics I must have missed in grad school. Save the obnoxious response and finally try to explain the validity of the work you place so much faith in.
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If you feel "insulted" by what Tinordi has responded to you with, then I would suggest this may in fact be a direct component of how you all too frequently present yourself on this forum, this discussion included.
You set yourself up in your first post in this thread as someone who is much less interested in actual dialogue, and primarily seeking to confirm your already strongly entrenched assertion that "these stats are crap." I encourage you to actually stop and take a look at the link provided by Tinordi
here, because it outlines fairly precisely why your "explanation" is a moot point. Perhaps he was somewhat unfair in his accusation that you lack a commensurate understanding of the topic, but you pretty fairly brought this on yourself. You have done so by the brash claim at the outset about the COMPLETE invalidity of the advanced stats that Mirtle is employing, and then by responding with an explanation that turns out to be practically negligible.
The fact of the matter is that PDO is useful under certain conditions, but useful nonetheless. It has proven to be a relatively good—if imperfect—predictor of what might happen at the end of the season. By this qualification, would you not agree that this is actually a fairly well grounded method for making general predictions? Or at minimum, for showing areas in which some teams will need to improve in order to either begin to achieve or to maintain success?