Quote:
Originally Posted by Tron_fdc
I totally know you're kidding, but I can use this as an example (sorta)
There's no way that the Flames will regress EXACTLY to where a stat predicts them to be. They can fall on either side of the mean, and predicting which side depends on how good of a team you think they are. Sure, there are probably stats for that, but I kind of fall on the other end of the spectrum as far as that goes. I hate stats, and I don't need them to tell me that there are ebbs and flows to a season, and that the Flames are likely playing over their heads right now. They will drop in the standings at some point this year; how far is anyone's guess.
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But why?
Why isn't it the case that maybe our PDO will regress to the mean rather than our winning percentage?
Only because we're the Flames, and everyone expects us to regress towards the mean because our #1 center is 20 years old and we've been irrelevant for 5-6 years now. The analysis is backward. We're proving a narrative with statistics, not creating one.