Quote:
Originally Posted by _Q_
So what you're saying then is the crash will be extra rough when it happens because the Flames have been playing above their head for 2/3rd of a season now.
Get ready boys and girls, the regression to the mean is gonna hurt and it's gonna hurt real bad. The advanced stats have spoken.
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I totally know you're kidding, but I can use this as an example (sorta)
There's no way that the Flames will regress EXACTLY to where a stat predicts them to be. They can fall on either side of the mean, and predicting which side depends on how good of a team you think they are. Sure, there are probably stats for that, but I kind of fall on the other end of the spectrum as far as that goes. I hate stats, and I don't need them to tell me that there are ebbs and flows to a season, and that the Flames are likely playing over their heads right now. They will drop in the standings at some point this year; how far is anyone's guess.
I would hope that anyone who uses advance stats is using it as a reference, and not as gospel. Sure it strengthens an argument, but it certainly doesn't cement it.
IMO this team took a step forward this year vs last year. I've been saying for a while that they are not a bottom 5 team, but neither are they a top 5. They should challenge for 14th-16th overall, in a playoff position, which is probably where the statisticians put them.
I will say that as long as we take a step forward from last year I'm happy.