[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Agreed. However, the regression to the mean works both ways. So while everything tightens up, that means Calgary is likely to go down, but Chicago, Vancouver, Colorado, Minnesota and Dallas are likely to come up. That will squeeze the Flames in the overall standings.

Not necessarily. Winning percentage is another stat where the standard deviation tends to decrease as sample size increases. What matters is not the absolute numbers of PDO, but the relative rankings.

What we really ought to be watching, it seems to me, is the z-score of PDO rather than the number itself. That would adjust for sample size and make the numbers between, say, a 19-game stretch and a full season strictly comparable.

Taking PDO exclusively, the Flames are actually probably a little unlucky to be 8th as we have the third best PDO. But when one looks at how high some of the shooting percentages are, and how those are likely to regress, and how we aren't controlling the puck as much as we need to be (the last two games notwithstanding) and the fact that we are dead last in offensive zone faceoffs but face the third most defensive zone faceoffs, and the combination of factors makes an argument: If we do not improve in many of these areas, chances are we fall farther than some other teams.

Very probably true. Though there is still the problem of measuring proxies instead of actual events. I mean, for instance, that the number of DZ faceoffs is not necessarily an accurate indicator of the percentage of time spent in the DZ. There are situations in which a team may be coached deliberately to try to get stoppages in play while hemmed in their own zone; in which case the coach's tactical decisions will contaminate the data. It's a pity that we don't have actual direct measurements of time of possession and time in zone. No doubt that will come with the new tracking technology. Having RFID chips on every player (and ideally the puck too, and just forget about FoxTrax) will make it possible to collect much more direct data instead of mucking about with all these proxies.

And I find it hard to disagree with that. If nothing changes, the stats predict we tumble down a little. Fortunately, much can change. Even something as simple as getting a guy like Backlund back would be a major boon.

This is an important point. 'If nothing changes' is hardly ever a valid assumption in sports (or in life generally). The Flames have been lucky to do as well as they have with all these injuries; but they weren't lucky to have all the injuries.