Quote:
Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist
The sample size is large enough. War-on-ice.com has over 10 years of data. I would suggest going to that site and looking at different stats and comparing them to what happened. You can even make larger than one year sample sizes. You can then see for yourself if the stat matched what happened. We can't measure future because it hasn't happened.
One very important thing that has only barely been looked at statistically, is advanced stats and playoff success. So far, the only work I've seen was from fivethirtyeight.com showing that playoff success was most strongly correlated with goalie save %. The kicker? Save % for a goalie is only very rarely repeatable suggesting a hot goalie is the most important thing yet almost impossible to predict or procure.
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Case in point: Marc Andre Fleury.
Playoff success will always be a major wildcard, I think. For half the teams, the sample size will be as small as 4-7 games. All it takes is for the goalie to be off a little or for a skater to have an ungodly stretch to cause a team to sink or swim.