Quote:
Originally Posted by Resolute 14
I think nobody is talking about Tampa because it is Tampa and most people don't think about them much except to complain about the NHL existing in warm weather markets. Certainly there is a lot of questioning about Montreal, and how they need to control games better if they want to sustain their record.
Honestly though, Tampa (and Montreal) have a track record the Flames don't. It is fair to question whether the Flames can keep it up, irregardless of whether other teams are or should be similarly questioned.
I think "luck" is used as a shorthand for "defying expectations" in this context. And yes, the bias and expectation of the person making the comment does factor in.
But lets look at the Flames. We have been fortunate that for 19 games now, either the goaltending has been hot, or the offence has been hot, or both. At some point, both are going to go cold. That is when our PDO will normalize, as will our "luck". Last year, that cold snap produced a 3-11-1 stretch that dropped us to the bottom of the league. This year, we shall see. Our strong record to start the year, plus hopefully greater overall talent should help us avoid such a dramatic tailspin.
But lets face it, based on how this team has played the last several years, one can't fault outsiders for questioning the Flames. We're not going to prove them wrong in 20 games.
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I agree with everything you said. The flames will not continue to be this lucky. I follow Mirtle on Twitter and agree with most things he says. Also, I believe he studied journalism about 500m from where I live a TRU here in Kamloops (I always thought he's from here not Kelowna?), so I have a soft spot for him.
The PDO may normalize, but I keep arguing that it doesn't have to normalize by very much to be normal. The Bruins finished last year with basically the same PDO we have now. Over very large sample sizes, there are teams with a PDO over 101. The sample size is quite small right now, so a 1% correction means maybe 2-3 less points than we have now. Whoop di do.
The flames will however, finish with a worse record than they have now unless they start playing better. You can't reasonably argue against that