Quote:
Originally Posted by PeteMoss
PDO is a weird stat. Its more just something that tends to work versus making much sense in math. Why are you multiplying shooting percentage by 100? Why not 95? Why not 500? In a true 'advanced' stat you'd actual work out the weights and prove why you are using them.
PDO is just another way of saying if you're getting outshot and still winning, you are getting lucky like all the more common 'advanced' stats out there. They are just different formulas saying the same thing.
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Not necessarily though. It tells you nothing about whether or not your getting outshot. The highest PDO in the league last year? Boston, who incidentally won the presidents trophy. Over a 4 year timespan, both Boston and Pittsburgh have a PDO over 101. That statistically cannot be chance. The sample size is far too large to be a random result. It's because they have good goaltending and talented scorers. Full stop.
PDO is only weakly a substitute for luck. For instance, a team with a high PDO without known scorers or goaltending, would be a strong hint it's luck. It's so poorly used by these stats guys though. PDO =/= luck. It may hint at it in certain circumstances (including the current flames imo) but it doesn't mean luck