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Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist
Not many flames fans think we're a "two points out of first in the NHL" team. Everyone expects regression. What is typically infuriating though, is a blindness to what's happening in all those other hot-start teams. Calgary is doomed to fail, because stats. "But man Tampa is so talented because the guys on the team are ones I've seen before", even though the same argument (albeit to a lesser extent) is valid. Weak possession and high PDO.
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I think nobody is talking about Tampa because it is Tampa and most people don't think about them much except to complain about the NHL existing in warm weather markets. Certainly there is a lot of questioning about Montreal, and how they need to control games better if they want to sustain their record.
Honestly though, Tampa (and Montreal) have a track record the Flames don't. It is fair to question whether the Flames can keep it up, irregardless of whether other teams are or should be similarly questioned.
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While we're on the subject of PDO, why is it a measure of luck? I'm sure it's been written about, no? PDO is simply a sum of day pct and shooting pct. Are those not both heavily influenced by talent? If you look at PDO from highest to lowest at the end of the season, it's almost a perfect mirror of the actual standings. So are the standings based on luck?????
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I think "luck" is used as a shorthand for "defying expectations" in this context. And yes, the bias and expectation of the person making the comment does factor in.
But lets look at the Flames. We have been fortunate that for 19 games now, either the goaltending has been hot, or the offence has been hot, or both. At some point, both are going to go cold. That is when our PDO will normalize, as will our "luck". Last year, that cold snap produced a 3-11-1 stretch that dropped us to the bottom of the league. This year, we shall see. Our strong record to start the year, plus hopefully greater overall talent should help us avoid such a dramatic tailspin.
But lets face it, based on how this team has played the last several years, one can't fault outsiders for questioning the Flames. We're not going to prove them wrong in 20 games.