Just to break things down
NK Navy
22 Romeo class submarines, these are 1950's design with noisy powerplants, they have had upgrades on thier sensor suites, however thier crews are not that good.
4 Whisky class submarines. Transfered from the soviet navy in 1974, still on the roles but considered to be unusable
22 Sango Ho infiltration subs, these are very small stealthy subs designed to insert special forces teams, they are not made for active combat roles.
40 Yugo class 2 man subs for infiltration.
So while they have a lot of boats they are of poor quality and are a poor match for a modern submarine. This is what the British call a target rich environment
1 Soho class frigate, considered to be a failure due to its unique design (Catamaran), fairly quick by very noisy.
2 Najin class anti sub frigates. small frigates one for each coast, they are thier fleets flagships. But they are not good boats and have poor combat value
These are thier largest boats and they have poor combat value. After that they have about 60 small boats that are missile or torpedo boats, and its unlikely that they would survive any kind of engagement with a carrier battle group.
The NK navy is extremely poor and not a real threat.
The NK airforce is approx 1700 planes strong but the bulk of it consists of older Mig 23 Floggers which were designed in the early 60's and some squadron's of the advanced Mig 29, but in the face of a determined air attack by a nation with advanced fighters its unlikely that they could retain air supremecy for very long. What kills the NK airforce is the fact that they have a severe shortage of fuel and the average pilot gets less then 10 hours of flight training for year. Compare that to 300 hours by the U.S. airforce and you have very inexperienced pilots in dogged old planes.
Where the strength lies is with its on the ground army, the North Korean's have about 1.4 million men in the active service including 100,000 men in thier special forces branch. And while the combat training for the infiltration units is impressive it drops off significantly for thier regular army troops. While better fed then thier civilian counterparts the average North Korean soldier is basically on a starvation diet. Thier tank force is mainly build comprised of vintage T55 tanks with some T72's sprinkled in . While the North Korean's have 11000 artillary pieces the majority of them are hardened and imobile, and would fall victim to counter battery fire and air strikes. So while they might have an effective first punch, it would likely be thier last, and thier troops would go unsupported in the field. While I'm not saying that North Korean's would surrender at all. My gut instinct tells me that thier military would suffer far more devestating losses to a technological superior foe that would gain air, logistical and artillary support and have greater mobility and speed.
It would still be a meat grinder to go into, but I think that it would be easier to destroy the KPA in the field then we're giving credit for.
But the whole scenario changes if Kim has a nuclear curtain there. Thats the doomsday scenario.
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