Quote:
Originally Posted by Slava
I thought I would comment on this as any evidence of a sweep. This includes all of the ridings that they will win with like 75% of the vote without even trying. It skews that support into ridings where it will be tight and they could lose. It's basically about concentration of the vote, and ridings like Linda Duncan, Calgary Centre, Calgary Confederation and such aren't going to show as a factor in the province as a whole. The thing is though, it's not a single election. Election day is essentially 308 separate elections all at once. That's why these numbers are mostly meaningless.
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Well ya, I would hope people would be able to interpret national polls understanding that they don't correlate to individual ridings, but more give a snapshot of a regions voting intent at that time.
Probably should have used this graphic instead from threehundredeight.com, they use the aggregate of national polls and weighs them by sample size, then looks at how they would extrapolate into actual riding wins with information like you said, where concentration of vote would show differently than the regional average. Here's what they came up with for how the October polls would translate to seats:
So like I said in my original post, Conservatives would still get almost every seat in Alberta at this time.