The other thing is the development arch.
Other than the McDavid's of the world, you get drafted but the work begins, you have to compete outpacing everyone around you. Perhaps the guy was an exceptional 18 year old, an amazing 19 year old, then hit the wall, and just isn't as good as he needs to be to take that next step.
Most 13th overall players are guaranteed to be producers at the NHL level unless they continue to develop.
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