Quote:
Originally Posted by united
10 games is a poor sample size as we all know. Using another metric, score-adjusted, instead of close boosts the sample size from 285 minutes to 531 minutes over those 10 games. Using score-adjusted, the Flames possession was 47.34% - good for 24th in the league in that time frame.
Regardless, 50.26% translates to about 93 points over the course of a season which is 5 points behind the Flames' current point per game pace. If they keep up 50.26% they should finish around 94-95 points which is good for a playoff spot. (47.34% translates to about 85 points FYI).
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Thanks, and sample size is definitely a factor in all this. We'll see how this measures over more games. I checked out fenwick-stats.com (and the linked Broad Street Hockey Article that I recall reading a while ago) and that looks interesting to me.
Can you tell me how you translate these % into points?
That 47.34% stems alot from 63 minutes of icetime where we were down by 2+ and EVF% was a pitiful 40.51% which is way way below average. A couple of bad periods. I realize it helps to boost the sample size but I think the % ends up skewed too much.
375 minutes (almost 2 periods per game) are either Down 1, Tied or Up 1. And in those 375 minutes the flames are 49.68% which is very respectable and at that level you can expect good goaltending to earn some points.