The common statement from pundits is that the Flames have brutal possession stats and therefore will regress significantly. Looking at last 10 games and the rest of the schedule (67 games left), I'm not sure that's accurate.
I used
http://war-on-ice.com/teamtable.html with Even Strength 5v5, in Close Score Situations:
Last 10 games 5-3-2 .600%
5 Home/5 Road
Fenwick% 50.26% (17th overall)
PDO 98.59 (SH% 6.52 + SV%92.06)
There is nothing unsustainable about the last 10 games. The schedule has been fairly balanced. True, 8 of last 10 are against East, but most are the stronger East teams plus a couple of solid Central teams.
Quick look at the Fenwick% (5on5 Close) of our competition over the same time frame:
2 games vs WSH 55.30%
2 x TB 51.37%
2 x MTL 50.00%
1 x CAR 49.19%
1 x CBJ 46.69%
1 x WPG 51.34%
1 x NSH 51.80%
In my book, the Flames are full value for the .600 record of last 10 games. They are not a possession powerhouse, but they can sustain this if the goaltending stays above .920 (which it should)
Looking at the remaining 67 games, 25% will be against heavyweights, 25% will be against weak sisters, and 50% against the middle teams that are comparable to our last 10 opponents.
The first 5 games of the year were bad (possession wise - yet we were still 3-2-0 thx to Hiller & Ramo), but that was tough circumstances. 1 Home game and 4 road games. 5 games in 8 nights. A Vcr/Edm back-to-back, then road game in STL, then a NSH/CHI back-to-back set.
I am not suggesting the Flames will be .600 all year. But I am suggesting that the posession stats argument for regression is not that solid.