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starseed · 11-05-2014, 08:57 PM

I got the invite from the eternals yesterday. I immediately thought of the plan of leveraging Pika's proof that the powers work into forcing a flip of our suspect rather than one of us.

There was no 24-hour requirement, but I actually did have an exam, and was behind on assignments, so I went with it. My plan was to figure out a target, then have us lynch them. Pux and I have the best chance out of all the townies in the game. You see 5/6 unknowns, I see 4 unknowns after putting Drury in the likely town category. I just have to figure out which duo it is.

I still had an inkling that there could be 3 mafia, and that they are HG/Oling/Timbo. I first thought of taking out Timbo as he is in the most likely scenarios. Either those three, or him and Dissent. Then I thought Dissent, as it would blow my original theory, and he seemed like the most obvious mafia candidate. (I laid it out in prior posts). I figure the squiggs links could be taken out, and the theories still stand. Then at the almost last minute, I thought about HG15, and went through the scenarios. I thought if he flipped town, it's 4-2 going into the night. The mafia would be forced to take out one of us because of our vote, which would prove that it was a failed townie plan, rather than a mafia plan. At that point we would know who the mafia duo was. If HG was town, it would be Dissent/Timbo. If he were mafia, it would be him and Oling.

Every time I looked at my numbers from my spreadsheet, I came up with nothing. No magic ratios or outliers. GGG was the only outlier I came up with the whole time I have used that spreadsheet. (he was very good at not picking the proven townies at that point in the game)

So I figured that since one of us were going down, and we would lose a day, I may as well try to get one of our candidates before that happened and hope I was right. I did not discuss a whole lot with Pux. I told her and Mazrim that my target would be Timbo (or dissent) before it ended up being HG. I was just checking with Mazrim to see if I was going to break any rules. He said no metagaming or posting fake day actions, but said that he could not stop me from lying about a PM he sent me.

Thats the long and short of it.

11-05-2014, 08:57 PM	#4719
starseed First Line Centre Join Date: Feb 2009 Exp:	I got the invite from the eternals yesterday. I immediately thought of the plan of leveraging Pika's proof that the powers work into forcing a flip of our suspect rather than one of us. There was no 24-hour requirement, but I actually did have an exam, and was behind on assignments, so I went with it. My plan was to figure out a target, then have us lynch them. Pux and I have the best chance out of all the townies in the game. You see 5/6 unknowns, I see 4 unknowns after putting Drury in the likely town category. I just have to figure out which duo it is. I still had an inkling that there could be 3 mafia, and that they are HG/Oling/Timbo. I first thought of taking out Timbo as he is in the most likely scenarios. Either those three, or him and Dissent. Then I thought Dissent, as it would blow my original theory, and he seemed like the most obvious mafia candidate. (I laid it out in prior posts). I figure the squiggs links could be taken out, and the theories still stand. Then at the almost last minute, I thought about HG15, and went through the scenarios. I thought if he flipped town, it's 4-2 going into the night. The mafia would be forced to take out one of us because of our vote, which would prove that it was a failed townie plan, rather than a mafia plan. At that point we would know who the mafia duo was. If HG was town, it would be Dissent/Timbo. If he were mafia, it would be him and Oling. Every time I looked at my numbers from my spreadsheet, I came up with nothing. No magic ratios or outliers. GGG was the only outlier I came up with the whole time I have used that spreadsheet. (he was very good at not picking the proven townies at that point in the game) So I figured that since one of us were going down, and we would lose a day, I may as well try to get one of our candidates before that happened and hope I was right. I did not discuss a whole lot with Pux. I told her and Mazrim that my target would be Timbo (or dissent) before it ended up being HG. I was just checking with Mazrim to see if I was going to break any rules. He said no metagaming or posting fake day actions, but said that he could not stop me from lying about a PM he sent me. Thats the long and short of it.