Rico is correct in that your ceiling is now screwed. Hopefully your ceiling doesn't flow too far throughout the main floor as the entire ceiling will need to be re done, you cant patch stipple ceiling and have an un-noticable repair.
The leak: Check inside the cabinet of your 2nd floor bath vanity for leaks. check the supply lines, shut-offs and also run the faucet then check the abs drain line. Next step would be to cut a hole in the drywall ceiling below (a keyhole saw or even a steak knife in a pinch will work) around the water stain, you should be able to see where the leak is coming from whether its a supply line or a drain, run the tub faucet as well to check the tub drain.
Hopefully your ceiling has never been painted as this will make ceiling repair more costly. If its just sprayed on stipple it can easily be scraped off and then another application of stipple or (better yet) "knock down" ceiling texture can be applied.
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