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Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan
I suspect where we differ is on expectations: I never thought they had a realistic shot in Elbow, so given that I would say their showing was very strong. In that context, the real question is whether they can raise enough money to run that kind of campaign province-wide. If they can they will be a force in the next election, not in Elbow, but Currie, Buffalo, and other urban-sense ridings. Let's not forget that Calgarians, even urban ones, won't vote NDP--that is abundantly clear. The issue to me is where centrists will park their vote next time given the choice between an Alberta Party that exceeded expectations in Elbow and a Liberal Party that was honestly an afterthought in four byelections.
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You are forgetting a crucial centrist party - the Prentice PCs. The Alberta PCs are a truly centrist party and the Alberta Party will have to fight for votes with both the Libs and the PCs.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan
Building a party from the ground up takes a lot of time; I think the Alberta Party looks at this as a partial victory. Obviously winning would have been better, but the riding didn't look all that winnable in the beginning. Given that, I don't see how they consider folding their tents after this.
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They certainly have the strength to fight another day and are in a better position than they were in 2012 but they are still in a very, very tenuous situation. I believe that Elbow was very much a by-election aberration and gave the Alberta Party some much needed media exposure but I can't see it lasting until 2016.