Quote:
Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan
I'll admit I'm confused by the statement that the Alberta Party, who came within 800 votes of winning Elbow, are in "big trouble" but the NDP, who continue to barely register in Calgary, are not.
I'll agree that the Liberals are in deep trouble, but that is kind of the message to to take away from the Elbow results too. The liberals and AP together would have won that riding, by a tidy margin, but the Grits can't exactly claim that the AP, who got more than twice as many votes as they did, are "splitting the vote."
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Here are a few reasons why I believe the Alberta Party is in trouble:
1) They were giving serious thought to folding after the 2012 campaign but decided against it.
2) Even during the by-elections the AP was polling at or under 5% in both Calgary and Edmonton (including Elbow).First past the post makes it really difficult to get elected when your vote is as dispersed as the Alberta Party's seems to be. They won't be able to run as strong of a campaign in 2016 when their volunteers/financial resources are spread over almost 90 ridings instead of a few. The NDP has a clear beachhead in Edmonton where they are polling almost 30% and are competing for first place in the polls. First past the post rewards a party that has this type of regional strength and this by-election helped reinforce the message that they are the non-Conservative option in Edmonton to defeat the PCs.
3) By-elections are often aberrations. People park their votes with a party or person that they like but won't usually vote for during an election. It is a way of sending a message to a governing party without throwing them out entirely.
4) In 2016, Elbow will have an MLA who is an incumbent Cabinet Minister rather than a somewhat controversial evangelical unelected yet still appointed Cabinet Minister which will make it much, much more difficult Clark to run dethrone.
5) If the WR regains their footing, a "throw the bums out" message will be much more resonant province wide than the post partisan message of the Alberta Party.
6) If the WR regains their footing, the PCs will likely make another move to push the middle of the road potential Alberta Party voters to vote PC to keep the WR hordes out of government.
7) Clark will likely not be represented in a party leaders debate and will be fighting from the outside to get his voice heard.
8) As seen in this election, the Alberta Party and Alberta Liberal Party partisans seem to hate each other more than they hate anyone else. Makes it unlikely that they'll be able to form a true detente. The only situation I can see happening is both parties decide not be able to run full slates out of weakness and this could lead to some non-competition between them. I actually believe that, in an ideological sense, Alberta Party voters are closer to the PCs than they are to the Liberals and a good campaign by Prentice could make them vote PC before before they'd ever vote Liberal.
In a nutshell, the Alberta Party desperately needed last night's by-election. All of their eggs were in that basket and it didn't work out. It was an impressive showing in Elbow but it doesn't look likely to be something that can be repeated.