All around a very good night for Prentice - that is stating the obvious.
The Alberta Party, while they had a good showing in Elbow, is in big trouble. They can't possibly put up that good of a fight against an incumbent Cabinet minister with the dilution of volunteers and resources over a general election. This was their chance and they went all in and it didn't break their way.
The Wildrose had a bad night but I think it was largely due to not quite knowing how to message against Prentice. The "Send the PCs a Message" argument is pretty standard by-election boilerplate and wasn't particularly effective against an amorphous and politically shrewd character like Prentice. He made some pretty smart pre-election moves that he could argue showed that they have already gotten the message. They'll need to go back to the drawing board and devise a message that works. One thing is that the WR is very strong in the Legislature and we'll see if they can regain their footing against Prentice in the Leg.
The Libs had a horrendous night. They were weak in all four ridings and didn't show any signs of improvement anywhere. They are on absolute life support as a party. They'll be down to 3 seats after Hehr and Kang jump federally and there is no guarantee they'll hold onto either of those seats. They'd fall to below the NDP in the Leg.
The NDP had an above average night. They had a good showing in Edmonton in one of the least winnable seats in the city for them. It helps establish a message that they are the progressive option in Edmonton and may allow them to gain an extra two or three seats. Calgary is still pretty barren obviously. However, with the AP and ALP looking pretty weak there could be some room for growth with Notley as leader.
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