Quote:
Originally Posted by c.t.ner
Interesting article from Duane Bratt of The Calgary Herald on the signs on private property in the three Calgary ridings.
http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/po...351/story.html
If anything I think this bodes much stronger for Dirks and the Wildrose then what The Alberta Party's poll says. Gotta expect that given the low polling numbers of the PCs and general negativity towards the brand right now, there's going to be quiet a few quiet supporters for them.
Interesting to see how Calgary West shapes up. Might be a strong indication that Taylor will win the riding. |
Here are my thoughts.
My reading of that article is that the political scientists are testing a hypothesis that signs are a barometer of election results. Their methodology, however, will not confirm or falsify this hypothesis, because it is highly flawed, for at least the following reasons:
1. They fail to account for any number of variables, including whether signage simply indicates that a campaign has more money, and therefore more voter contact at the door and on the phone.
2. They fail to consider whether, rather than measuring voter intentions, lawn signs may actually AFFECT voter intentions.
For these reasons, even a positive result isn't going to confirm their hypothesis. In addition, as they admit, this would be highly impractical in a general election. This raises a third problem, which is that byelections are a bit unique--people are less afraid to vote for a party that they might shy away from in a general election simply to "send a message" to the incumbent. Add to that the fact that turnout is usually low, this magnifies the effects of voter enthusiasm. In fact, lawn signs are much likelier to be a measure of enthusiasm than of voter intention, and as such a result in a byelection is not all that useful in the context of measuring voter intentions more generally.
With that said, it is interesting that Clark is in second place in lawn signs in Elbow. I will be watching with interest, as a centrist voter. My view is that the liberals are in big (well, even bigger) trouble in this province if they can't beat Clark in Calgary Elbow in this byelection. This one isn't about winning a seat--it's about winning credibility as a potential opposition party.