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Old 10-11-2014, 09:34 AM   #2102
starseed
First Line Centre
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GGG View Post
If it allows the cop to live 1 extra night then it is a wash as it adds one confirmed townie in exchange for one confirmed townie or it's a net loss if the cops last investigation nets a mafia member. Then we are trading a mob member fro a confirmed townie.

However having four confirmed townies alive puts the mob in a tough position to have to choose between cop hunting and killing our doc and other confirmed townies.

With 17 left The mob would know there are 5 non cops out there instead of 4. Plus 5 of them. With 17 left after lynch that means it would change form 1 in 7 chance to 1 in 6 chance. Not much change it odds.
By my count, there are 16 players left. I also assumed 5 mafia. Plus there are the players who have stated that they have a certain ability. They could be lying, but it depends on if the mafia believe them, and that they are telling the truth.
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