[Drury18]

For the...well I've lost count, time I went back through all the threads.

You know what's funny? I can find Starseed and GGG working together since Day 1.

When I made that post about GGG on Day 1, starseed voted for GGG but then put in a remark how I might have just attacked a dissenting townie. So you vote for someone, but also protect them?:

Originally Posted by starseed

A squiggs flip could tell us more than a bizaro flip, but I think flipping GGG will tell us either that bizaro is likely mafia, and squiggs is likely town, or that Drury attacked a dissenting townie and no mafia tried to pull the vote off of bizaro.
Vote: GGG

There's also this post from Day 3 where he puts GGG on the top of his scum list, but again, mentions me pointing the finger I might be scum because I defended someone who went after GGG, then says it's too risky to lynch him and moves away from it completely:

http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...postcount=1888

(Quoted only relevant to my point parts of the quote. Can read the full thing from the post link)

Originally Posted by starseed

GGG
Voted for oling when the town was on Bizarro. Correctly noted that no one was defending bizarro by trying to steer the conversation toward another inactive player, like Baxter. My paranoia is saying that he made up the tracking thing to support our belief that ECF is the doctor, but I tend to think that paranoid thought is stupid. I wanted him on the list to see more pressure from him.

Drury defended Oling after the GGG accusation. I think mafia wouldnt be so open about that, but it might be worth looking into if we run out of other leads and Oling flips mafia.

I went back to the list of people that revealed their character, and in what order, and I noticed that I have the top 5 as unknowns (I include ECF). The bottom half of the list was heavy in confirmed townies from my perspective.
They are:

GGG
Oling_Roachinen
Formulate
East Coast Flame
Stazzy33

I am now thinking that the mafia compared characters, saw that they were all random, so decided to get everyone to reveal, and use that as an excuse to vote out a townie. I have a good feeling that the above list has a couple mafia. GGG is at the top of the list. Oling is second. Formulate is third.

My theory is that mafia strategy aimed at hiding, is to kill players that they have not targeted, and to vote for themselves, if it is safe to do so, or vote for targets that are not going to be hit, and thus turn up town. Perhaps I should ignore Baxter/Squiggs for now, and chalk it up to them being inactive and just voting for the target du jour.

So, my list becomes-
GGG
Oling
Formulate/Timbo

Maybe Stazzy or Mrkajz (Mrkaj was also an early character reveal)

GGG is too risky with the lynchproof claim. Plus, my gut is telling me that I am wrong about him. However, my gut is often wrong in this game.

Starseed's actually protected GGG a few more times in a similar way:

Originally Posted by starseed

I have reviewed ECF's posts, and went through paranoia mind games with myself in trying to see links between him and other posters.

He was quick to attack GGG for stopping the bizaro (proven townie) vote train. The logical inconsistencies are too hard to ignore, and the behaviour surrounding the Eternals joining and voting Matt was bizarre.

I think he is my top pick at this point.

Unvote
Vote: East Coast Flame

Originally Posted by starseed

Town:

-GGG : I could be completely wrong about him, but he voted against the bizaro train when it was in full motion. Mind you, if he were mafia, he would know biz would flip town, which would add to his credibility late in the game. Maybe he killed biz to build that credibility? But I am leaning to those thoughts being paranoia. My gut is saying town. I think we need townies to go against the mob when they feel the mob is on the wrong track.

And GGG protecting starseed:

Originally Posted by GGG

So if we put aside the GP_Matt situation where do we go next.

Option 1 hmmhmmcamo. he is either a power role or mafia. He has plenty of time to post when accused but lays low when not pressed. I am leaning toward power role based on his desire to make a contribution to the town defense.

Option 2 Girlysports - works to keep information private, advocated for quick lynch.

Option 3 try to lynch our 3rd cult member since the first two worked out so well. I don't have an opinion on Starseed.

Option 4 Lynch Squiggs inactive and enjoying the beaches.

Either way if we pick scum we have now failed to lynch our last 3 attempts. Sooner or later we need to lynch someone or we will all disclose our powers and the mafia wins.

They only get "sort of" suspicious of each other:

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15
I think low post count, high vote count could also been seem suspect behaviour. You just show up to vote, probably whatever the group is voting without trying to help figure out who the mafia members are.

Originally Posted by GGG

The two that standout by that metric are Starseed and MrKajz. MrKajz could also be moved up the vote list as there are 1 or 2 tied at 10. So both of them are voting lots but posting less.

Originally Posted by starseed

I don't want to attach myself too much to GS, as she is in my top 4-6, but I have the advantage of comparing what she said about the invite and what I had. I would expect that some people would be suspicious, but I just dont see enough to jump on her lynch.

As for hmm and squiggs, I feel like it is mafia driven. Like they are trying to smoke out our roles. Squiggs flip could net some good info, though.

As for GGG, also suspicious, but not sure.

Originally Posted by GGG

I still come back to the WIFOMy argument that Starseeds reveal was way too complicated and ackward to be a lie. The lynch all liars policy lynch though is not a bad option as it does help the town in future games as well as this one

(sorry about the third person reference It justs makes it more clear).

When GGG "questions" starseed, it's pretty passive. Same when starseed "questions" GGG. Both are pretty aggressive with the rest of us. The post below, he asked both starseed and GP_Matt. They let GP_Matt say everything and starseed quipped in with short one sentence answers with "I'll post more later".

Originally Posted by GGG

Starseed is now a member of the guardians. GP is a member of the eternals. See first post. Prior to the guardian showing up I was thinking the eternals would be able to talk to the MOTs after death to continue to provide their thoughts now that their is a second group I have the following questions I would like answered by Starseed at GP Matt. Be careful in answering any or all of my questions if you think it would hurt us but also know at this point I am almost ready to lynch one of you to see a flip.
1) have your victory conditions changed
2) did you gain any cool powers (probably don't answer)
3) did you choose to join or were you forced
4) can GP and Starseed talk to each other outside the thread

GGG asked Starseed about Timbo being the other MOT. Starseed didn't answer, GGG didn't pursue it.

Starseed questions GGG's numbers:

Originally Posted by GGG

vote eastcoastflames
the odds of us hitting the doctor are 1/19
The odds of us hitting mafia are 1/5 or better
Taking those odds it is much more probable that ECF is mafia than the doctor.
I realize by doing this it puts me directly in the line of fire for ECF tonight.

Originally Posted by starseed

wut
How did you come up with these odds?

You know what happened with that? GGG and Oiling_Roachman ended up discussing odds for a number of posts. starseed just disappeared from that conversation.


GGG's been quick to point out that he publicly changed his mind about lynching people who joined a group. Do you know when he changed his mind? Yea, changed it right in time for his buddy to send him an invite so he could accept with no consequences

Prior to the GirlySports invite

Originally Posted by GGG

If someone rejects joining the guardians and no one joins it confirms what GP, Starseed, and ECF are saying that they chose to join.
If another guardian appears then it wouldn't have been voluntary and then it's more likely that it's a cult and their victory conditions have changed. We just need to be clear and convincing that anyone who joins gets lynched next.

Originally Posted by GGG

I am definately in favour of lynching the person if they join the guardians tonight or the eternals tomorrow.
This gives us a few things.
It shows it's voluntary, and it stops the spread. Until we see a really cool power used I am not sure it's worth it to possibly lose more townies. If it is a cult they would have answered the win condition question the same way so we don't really know.

After the the mrkajz invite (and yes, this post will be referenced twice, I think it's got a couple tells in it):

Originally Posted by GGG

My thought is two townies are the ones distributing the powers. Therefore it's on the town not to screw up. They also might overlap with the MOTs. I am still suspicious that the leaders have a different win condition but I for one will accept the next offer from either group.

Next offer for either group went right to him.


There's also GGG using starseed's answers for the invites to be "truth" and comparing them to GP_Matt and ECF's:

http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...&postcount=927



GGG has mentioned before about the MOT's and them being the twins having the potential to talk. This was Day 2. Now we find out that is the case:

http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...&postcount=622

Originally Posted by GGG

I think the MOTs are the twins who can talk to each other like wood and UCB in game one. Post 29 in the chat I think is revealing. The MOTs don't have any extra info YET. My guess is they will have the power to talk to the dead. As they mentioned they have other minor powers.

You have to wonder if this is also true. Except where maybe it's not a pair of townies handing out the power, maybe it's a pair of scum:

Originally Posted by GGG

My thought is two townies are the ones distributing the powers. Therefore it's on the town not to screw up. They also might overlap with the MOTs. I am still suspicious that the leaders have a different win condition but I for one will accept the next offer from either group.

I also found starseed asking questions about the MOT's in the portal that he obviously knew the answer to.

Originally Posted by starseed

Twilight portal - how do you guys know the messages from the twilight portal were not mafia trying to create confusion? Did it seem genuine? What reasons did they give for their list?

Do you know who answered that question? Me then GGG



And then my favorite and why I started to look back on things. When Starseed starts getting a bunch of votes against him (and GGG says he agrees with the lynch now but oh no, too many votes are on so he can't actually place the vote himself), GGG decides to go hard against Timbo for something he's openly admitted to doing himself: Changing names within the Twilight thread. Which appears like an obvious attempt to change the voting direction.



Now I get my name comes up alot with GGG and starseed. ALOT. I'm not in on whatever crap they are pulling. I don't think the fact I got an invite was random by any means. The content of my invite doesn't help either since the Guardians want me to lay off GGG and join the group that starseed and GGG are in. Perhaps they didn't expect me to stay true to my word. Perhaps they figured they could catch me in a lie and then lynch me out next. As I pointed out in my response to Oiling_Roachman, I sure questioned the people who got invites and pointed out a number of things they could have done better. Backseat driving at its best. I don't think they believed I would actually act the way I said I would. I think the "cruel joke" part (in addition to suggesting I'd be friends with GGG) was seeing what I would do about the invite. I bet if I had joined the guardians, GGG and starseed would have organized the lynch against me. I had too many things they could have used against me (posts against GGG and my very bold thoughts on people who got invites) that they could have twisted against me and then had me up for lynching suddenly believing I was the scum that joined the group. Get all suspicion off of them and get me out.

Heck, starseed even had this little nugget to throw at me from earlier:

Originally Posted by starseed

I feel like Drury is the eternals leader? Maybe the eternals leader is mafia?

And look at the timing of the starseed reveal about his powers. AFTER I came to the town and let them know I got the invite and revealed all the details of the invite and said I was ignoring it until the 24 hours were nearly up. What other reason did he have to reveal all that at that exact time? I threw a wrench in their plans. Now...well might as well toss the rest of the tool box in there.

I do apologize for the long post, but I think the length sort of shows what I'm getting at. All of these cannot be coincidence. They can't.