Quote:
Originally Posted by mrkajz44
I agree that I do stand out on the list when looking at the raw numbers. However, I think we need to use the list as just part of the information when making a decision. Some posters, including myself, tend to have longer and more drawn out posts with lots of logic and discussion in them, while others tend to post shorter ones with less points discussed per post.
In my eyes, content of posts is more important than post count. I'm sure if you searched for my posts, you'll see that the majority of them are somewhat longer, and generally have at least a paragraph or two of discussion, if not more.
Again, not saying the list provides go info, but I think we always need to take it in context.
As for Matt, I think the ECF poision idea is the best. All we know is Rathji's night ability was re-directed. There are several posibilities for this.
1)One person's night ability is re-directed at night at random - somewhat unlikely but a possibility
2)Townperson re-directed his night ability as they were suspicious of Rathji on day one - this seems fairly likely as there was a ton of speculation on the first day and it would be hard for a townie to decide who to use the re-direct on
3)Mafia re-directed his night ability - also likely, but less so than option 2 in my opinion. Why pick Rathji specificly? I don't really have the answer to that and can't see anything in Rathji's day one posts to support it
4)Rathji is lying about the re-direct - another possibility, but I do think Rathji is telling the truth
With all this uncertianty, trying to plan around assumptions we've made on this re-direct (where the general talk is saying mafia have this power) is sort of moot in my opinion as we really don't know. I think Matt is telling the truth about being unlynchable, so if we still want to get him, the ECF poision is the best option, in my opinion.
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yeah I think 1 and 4 are very unlikely. Which brings us to 2 and 3. On Night 1 the re-direct is really just to get information.
2. A townie who has this power will just re-direct randomly I think. I totally agree with you that it would be difficult to determine who to use the re-direct. If it's really lucky it can re-direct a bullet onto scum. It's really for information. If GP_Matt had died last night, the redirector would be suspicious that Rathji can kill.
3. The mafia wants to find out who has powers. So they choose Rathji as an educated guess and redirect him to GP_Matt. Why GP_Matt?
a) Matt is scum and if they're lucky a protection will land on Matt and Rathji will broadcast it
b) Matt is town and if they're lucky a bullet will hit him or Rathji will broadcast something useful.
Rathji gave a good answer that he didn't use his power on Night 1, which keeps the mafia guessing.. what power does he really have and when will he use it? Would they continue re-directing him? It's cat and mouse.
Should we follow Rathji's example? Report if we got re-directed but not say if we did anything? We can then study the pattern?