Quote:
Originally Posted by Resolute 14
From a Conservative Party perspective, the Bloc being so low is not a good thing. A weak Bloc will dramatically increase the odds of a majority, and given current polls, a Liberal one. While a strong Bloc increases the odds of a minority government, it would also increase the odds of a Conservative minority.
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Good topic for analysis. Right now the numbers are a lot like the Paul Martin election across the board -- pretty much every party in every region is within a few points of their 2004 numbers. With the exception of the collapse of the Bloc and rise of NDP in Quebec. And the Libs finished that election with 135, 20 short of a majority government. Let's say that the rest of Canada plays out like 2004, the Liberals need to get somewhere in the neighbourhood of 42 of 75 seats in Quebec to form a majority. Conservative support hasn't really deteriorated, so they probably hang on to, let's say, 4 of the 5 seats they currently have. And let's say that the Liberals take all 4 of the current Bloc seats, and hold onto all 7 of their own. They still need to pick up 30 seats from the NDP, to reach their 42 threshold.
The problem with trying to project their path to victory there is that the NDP base was extremely broad: they pulled in both anti-establishment, traditionally bloc voters, and they pull in the a lot of progressive Montreal voters. Obviously their support has collapsed a lot, going from 43% to 30%, and knowing where they've lost support would be key to understanding what the Liberals chances here. If the NDP lost a lot of support from a certain demographic across, say, 20 or so ridings, but have kept their hold in the remaining 39 ridings, then a Liberal majority is probably impossible without big gains elsewhere outside Quebec. On the other hand, if the NDP is losing support across the board, then there's a chance for the Liberals to turn a moderate lead in popular vote into a huge leap in seats. In 2004, 34% of the vote in Quebec gave them only 21 seats, but there's a chance that 34% of the vote can give them closer to 40 seats, depending on where the NDP support is eroding.
There has never been an election with anything remotely like the current balance in seats in Quebec, so trying to predict it based on past precedent is nearly impossible. But as always, Quebec continues to be the most interesting province in Canadian politics.