Quote:
Originally Posted by gvitaly
Those are some interesting points, but I think that the amount of goals a player will score is more related to how he is being utilized rather than the amount scored during the previous season. For example, Matt Stajan under B. Sutter was a 0.3PPG player during the 2011-12 season. The following season under Hartley he became a 0.55PPG player. It could be contributed to a new system and a new coach, but mostly it was the increased responsibility.
This year before predicting scoring based on the previous season, we really need to consider who will Hartley prefer and in what situation. Suppose Setoguchi could be a 15 goal player, if he is given PP time consistently; However, if he is given that ice time someone else's goal totals will be significantly lower. In fact, he can only contribute 5 goals the entire season if he is used on the 4th line. That logic is what D. Sutter did wrong when he assembled a team of 20 goal scorers. Obviously there are exceptions, for example Glencross that has always generated most of his points during even strength.
Now I am more interested to know who do you think will be the more sheltered players? who do you expect to see on the PP? and how do you think it will affect their numbers from last year.
Also, quite a few people pointed out that garbage goals and deflections will be most likely our weapon of choice. I mostly agree especially since I have seen how opponent teams start to shy away from contact with our team, after a few well placed hits. It in turn leads to mistakes and giveaways. On the other side the amount of odd man rushes that the Flames generated seemed to be considerably less than during the previous season. I still hope it will be a weapon the Flames use more and more effectively as the season goes on.
EDIT: One last questions, do you think the Flames generated a sufficient amount of goal scoring opportunities during the preseason, or did the scoreboard reflect the lack of offense accurately?
PS: Great discussion, quite a few interesting points made.
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No question that a player's points will be largely affected by the way they are utilized.
However, overall, the roles don't change. If one player is taken off the PP, another player is put on it. If one player is getting less ice-time, another player is getting more.
So those things balance out.
When we say we can expect the same group of players to get about the same number of goals, that doesn't mean that they will
each get the same number, it simply means that, where one is reduced, another should improve.
As for who specifically might get more ice-time, I would think that Hudler and Glencross could both see significant PP time - same for Giordano and Brodie.