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Old 10-01-2014, 11:07 AM   #411
bizaro86
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Quote:
Originally Posted by East Coast Flame View Post
I agree. Plus if he does flip mafia, we have an automatic lynch for day two.
I think this is the biggest reason to stick with GP_Matt. If he is mafia, it's a two for one deal. Even if you have someone else you think is just as likely (and what are the odds we could agree on that by the deadline?) it would only get you one mafioso if you're right.

So even if the odds of GP_Matt being mafia are the same as everyone else, the payoff is higher. So it's the best bet to make, imo.

Statistically, we're probably lynching a townie on the first day, but this seems to tilt the bet in our favour a bit.
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