Quote:
Originally Posted by FlameOn
A tough military crackdown isn't that likely. In Hong Kong, China does not have any of the censorship control that they do on the mainland. The international community, as well as the international press, will be observing. Right now China's great firewall is full of holes with news getting back to the Mainland quite easily despite strong filtering. If a crackdown were to happen the entire world would see it, as well as a good number of their own citizens, which would cause unrest at home and abroad since the protesters have been clean, peaceful and there is zero looting or violence against authorities. What minuscule support the Beijing government had in HK would quickly melt away as well.
Tough military crackdowns will cause two things. Strong international condemnation w/ dire economic consequences and news of the crackdown spreading at home. Both of which are not desirable for China. With so much press and international attention on HK, China cannot afford another crackdown scandal or else they will jeopardize the trade deals that are the life blood of the Communist party.
Recent surveys of Chinese citizens show that the Communist party is only staying in power with their citizens (w/ relatively little unrest) because of the continued strong economic growth and standard of living increases. This is placating some of the Chinese citizen's calls for greater autonomy and democracy. Will they risk cracking down on HK and cause a domino effect of economic downturn and increased domestic unrest? This is something I don't think the Chinese central leadership will risk given the whole amounts of visibility into this area of the world. HK is one of the major economic hubs of Asia after all.
CaptainCrunch, you are right that the Chinese central leadership doesn't care about the HK people... but what they do care about is maintaining their power and appearance of legitimacy governing the Chinese people (while lining their own pockets). A strong crackdown would be horrible for business for them so to speak, especially against peaceful protesters (For crying out loud... protesters are still doing their homework.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-29423147). More than likely there will be some kind of negotiated compromise that they'll scale back on very slowly later through subterfuge and intimidation... though it's not like the Chinese government hasn't backed down before. Last decade Tung Che Wah, the Beijing appointed overlord of HK (Chief Executive), was run out of office when over 500k people marched and protested on the street for his resignation. Beijing did nothing to help out their appointed leader then (despite the HK people basically overthrowing him), there is a good chance they will do nothing drastic now. Giving the protesters what they want on the other hand... |
Yeah, I don't think a big military crackdown is likely either, I was just saying it's a possibility of course. Kinda taking a middle of the road posting position there, in case someone who knew more about it told me they thought it might happen. As I mentioned, it would really slow down the economy, which is already suffering a bit right now.
That does make it interesting though, cause I really don't know what the government does in this situation. I can't imagine they give in. There has got to be some middle of the road compromise they might try? Or maybe they are thinking the protesters will tire and give up after time?
I guess it gets interesting tomorrow when the holiday ends. We'll see how much it starts affecting business there. Heard that the major financial companies were setting up sites outside of downtown so they won't have to contend with the protesters to get to work.
Your first post was an excellent rundown. It's very important to note HK isn't the crown jewel it used to be for China. Don't get me wrong, it's still one of the most important and profitable cities there, but it's not near the level of GDP it used to be as you mentioned.
The one thing I mentioned was that the longer they allow the protests, the more it may 'spread' to the mainland by encouraging them or showing them it's possible to 'fight back'. I guess you seem to think that's not as much of a threat? The propaganda net is that tight? Or maybe the culture is still that different? Would love to hear your thoughts, obviously you've got a good grasp on this.