Quote:
Originally Posted by Resolute 14
Where did I say that? Pretty sure I actually said the complete opposite.
I could take this argument more seriously if not for the fact that this riding has existed since 1971 and has been Tory for virtually its entire existence - Cheffins won a 2007 by-election that could be characterized as equivalent to Paul Hinman's win in Calgary-Glenmore for Wildrose in 2009. Both were turfed in the following general election.
This riding is PC in general, though it has occasionally managed a strong Liberal challenge. As I noted, the Liberals could make a credible showing of it if they can hold the left, but the facts are, if the PCs were to drop 30 points in this vote and the Liberals took 20 of those, they would still only be the third place party.
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Whoops! I misread your original post.
My apologies!
I guess I do agree that the riding is PC, but not many aren't. I just get the impression, perhaps due to the by-election campaign win, that this riding is more red-tory than others.
In general though people are giving more credit to the campaign team for the Alberta Party than they should. Lets not forget that they ran the same candidate last time and he barely received over 500 votes. He placed a distant, distant fifth place. Is the campaign team good? Sure. But they haven't won every campaign they've been involved in either. Carter basically did nothing for Martha Hall-Findlay and her leadership bid. Alnoor for mayor was a disaster for a number of reasons. He has won when it seemed unlikely, but lets not inflate the probabilities here; its an uphill battle and oftentimes the underdog just simply loses. Corey Hogan, who worked for the ALP, managed to get them elected only in seats where the personal popularity of the candidates was effective and in some ridings was a close-call at best. Marc Doll has almost no electoral success to his name. I mean he campaigned for Gael Macleod and John Mar last time around and lost both. Its far from a certainty that this team can pull this off.
I expect to see a "Greg Clark is leading Elbow" poll anyday now though. I'm only a little surprised to have not seen it already. It will either be that, or Clark is second and everyone in Elbow should vote for him because he is the only one who can keep Dirks out. Its basically the tried and true method for Carter.