The Elbow by-election certainly has potential for someone to sneak through the middle of a vote split. I agree with Slava what happened last time isn't too relevant because of a likely significant (15-20% maybe) amount of votes made to the PCs in an effort to block the Wildrose as opposed to actual support for Redford.
Predictably the Wildrose slogan for these by-elections is the moronic "Send the PC's a message". Bizarre choice considering voting for the Liberals or Alberta Party is also sending the PC's a message, in fact an even stronger one: Don't count on us saving you next time like we did last time.
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"Think I'm gonna be the scapegoat for the whole damn machine? Sheeee......."
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