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Originally Posted by Resolute 14
I will admit to some bewilderment as to the talk about the Alberta party here as the latest polls show them as a complete non-factor. The Leger poll from the start of the month lumped them in the "other" group, which was only at 4-5% in Calgary. I can't see there being enough of a local groundswell in Calgary-Elbow for them to matter.
Slava's thought that Wildrose is "less of a factor" in the urban ridings is also largely wishful thinking. Not only has the party consistently led in Calgary in the latest polls, but it obviously wouldn't be the first time a Calgary riding went Wildrose in a by-election. IMO, Calgary-Elbow is a two-way fight between PC and Wildrose. If the Alberta Party draws anything more than that 4%, then the Liberals are probably a non-factor. But if they can hold the left, I think they could make it a three-way battle.
Mandel should take Edmonton-Whitemud easily. Prentice should win whatever riding they parachute him into as well. Wonder how they compensate whatever MLA they get to take a bullet for him, however.
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Its not only wishful thinking on my part though because these inner city ridings are more Liberal than what is lumped into that poll. You have the suburbs there for example which are far more conservative than the downtown core or surrounding communities.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Resolute 14
Honestly, I don't think it is possible to underestimate them. We're talking about a riding where the PCs and Wildrose took 86% of the vote in the last election. As irrelevant as the Liberals were last time out - Calgary-Elbow was their second worst showing in Calgary by percentage of vote - I do think disaffected Tory voters who don't want to vote Wildrose could flock to the reds. I think it unlikely that they go farther, even in protest.
Stephen Carter is good, but this isn't like Nenshi's first election where there is no incumbent and the only battle is to build the individual's name. This time, they have to deal with a candidate who is already a minister with a high profile portfolio, two parties with entrenched support, two direct opponents on the left, and four opposing parties with name recognition that they lack.
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I agree with your second paragraph. I also think that a mayoralty campaign makes that social media angle more effective because more people are engaged in general and changing facebook or twitter avatars has an impact. I'm not sure that this will be as effective on a smaller riding where people are less engaged in general and people have no idea whether they're live in the riding or not.
I also disagree with the point that the Liberal showing was the worst so this time they are going to get slaughtered. Its obvious that this riding is liberal in general and the thought was to keep the Wildrose out, and flock to the PCs. The big question is where those votes go this time. My thought is not to the socially conservative Fletcher or Dirks, but split between the other 2-3 candidates.