Honestly, I don't think it is possible to underestimate them. We're talking about a riding where the PCs and Wildrose took 86% of the vote in the last election. As irrelevant as the Liberals were last time out - Calgary-Elbow was their second worst showing in Calgary by percentage of vote - I do think disaffected Tory voters who don't want to vote Wildrose could flock to the reds. I think it unlikely that they go farther, even in protest.
Stephen Carter is good, but this isn't like Nenshi's first election where there is no incumbent and the only battle is to build the individual's name. This time, they have to deal with a candidate who is already a minister with a high profile portfolio, two parties with entrenched support, two direct opponents on the left, and four opposing parties with name recognition that they lack.
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