I will admit to some bewilderment as to the talk about the Alberta party here as the latest polls show them as a complete non-factor. The Leger poll from the start of the month lumped them in the "other" group, which was only at 4-5% in Calgary. I can't see there being enough of a local groundswell in Calgary-Elbow for them to matter.
Slava's thought that Wildrose is "less of a factor" in the urban ridings is also largely wishful thinking. Not only has the party consistently led in Calgary in the latest polls, but it obviously wouldn't be the first time a Calgary riding went Wildrose in a by-election. IMO, Calgary-Elbow is a two-way fight between PC and Wildrose. If the Alberta Party draws anything more than that 4%, then the Liberals are probably a non-factor. But if they can hold the left, I think they could make it a three-way battle.
Mandel should take Edmonton-Whitemud easily. Prentice should win whatever riding they parachute him into as well. Wonder how they compensate whatever MLA they get to take a bullet for him, however.
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