I dunno, this is a major curveball. You're getting the patented "Ford Ways" of being a taxpayer's hero, without the drama and crack smoking.
Doug is what Rob was when he was first elected, I can see him winning it. This appeals to all the existing Ford voters, while brining back in a good number of those that would never vote for Rob due to his personal antics. Sure Doug is just as slimey, but now the Ford camp isn't burdened with Rob's stuff anymore.
Rob will win his council seat easily, and Chow would be smart to bail and throw her support to Tory and avoid vote splitting.
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