As UCB said, Putin is nuts, but he isn't that nuts.
As well, it's not just going to be all about him. If Ukraine does move towards/join NATO, how long will it take for there to be serious disagreement in the higher levels of power in Russia? And how long will it take for the vacationing soldiers to go, 'well shoot, this isn't good.'
The one thing that I am very concerned about it how bad it could become in the meantime now that this news is out. Because yeah, Russia/Putin isn't going to like it. But I don't think that it would cause a larger conflict (IE outside of Ukraine). Even during the cold war, there wasn't really any large West/East conflicts, instead only in places outside Europe. Afghanistan, places in Asia, etc. Russia isn't going to start rolling into Poland or past just to fight this.
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