Quote:
Originally Posted by gunnner
I think most of the board has confused a low risk move with a smart move. The probability of success is low, so for me its a bad move. There are some great articles out there on the Oakland Athletics decision making/drafting/FA signing process. Give it a read on why not to make low risk low reward signings. A signing should serve a purpose, and I still dont understand what he is likely to bring that will a)improve the team in the short term, b)improve the team in the long term.
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All will agree that the risk with Seto is low, most would agree that probability of "success" (which is subjective) is low, but there would be disagreement that the potential reward is also low. That is your opinion.
Furthermore, there needs to be context for this evaluation as opposed to in your vacuum. If we were to go and get a player who's probability of success was high, and who's potential reward was high, that would be fantastic! Do you know what we'd have to give up to trade for such a player (ie. quality prospects and picks)? Or what we'd have to pay them as a UFA? And how much that player would cost in total dollars and term? This forum would be incensed if at this stage of the rebuild, the Flames went after your high probability and high reward player by either paying huge dollars and term or giving up prospects and picks. To me, you are describing the road to mediocrity that we're trying to stay away from.
We need to draft and be patient. For us to take a chance (ie. your low probability of success) on a pretty young local guy who has shown he can be a 20 or 30 goal scorer for small dollars on a one year deal makes sense.