Quote:
Originally Posted by Pellanor
Chance of each placement to get top 3 picks.
Code:
1st 2nd 3rd Top 3
1 20.00% 17.49% 15.02% 52.51%
2 13.50% 13.07% 12.48% 39.05%
3 11.50% 11.43% 11.26% 34.19%
4 9.50% 9.68% 9.82% 29.00%
5 8.50% 8.77% 9.01% 26.28%
6 7.50% 7.82% 8.15% 23.47%
7 6.50% 6.86% 7.23% 20.59%
8 6.00% 6.36% 6.76% 19.12%
9 5.00% 5.36% 5.76% 16.12%
10 3.50% 3.81% 4.17% 11.47%
11 3.00% 3.28% 3.61% 9.89%
12 2.50% 2.75% 3.04% 8.28%
13 2.00% 2.21% 2.45% 6.66%
14 1.00% 1.11% 1.25% 3.37%
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I don't believe this is correct. For one thing, the odds for the 2nd and 3rd rounds are dependent on who wins the prior rounds. So you end up with ranges of odds.
Based on my quick run through of it, the last place team would have the following odds:
1st pick: 20%
2nd pick: 23.1% (best case, if 29th place team won round 1) to 20.2% (if 17th won)
3rd pick: 26.7% - 20.6%
Edit: not entirely right either... the 2nd and 3rd rounds have to be factored down to reflect the possibility of having won the prior round(s)
Another edit: oh, I see that you took weighted averages... my apologies, your numbers appear good