Quote:
Originally Posted by You Need a Thneed
Not insignificant odds that the worst place team only drafts 4th. It will happen quite regularly.
(without actually doing the math)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by #-3
if 17th won 1st, and 18th won 2nd.
30th would have just over a 51% chance at 3rd. There is only like a 0.02% chance of that happening.
Any other scenario would give them better odds of at least a top 3 pick.
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Let's do the math:
In the first lottery, the worst overall team has a 20% chance of being picked.
The best case scenario for the worst overall team (if they don't get picked in the first lottery), is that the second place team gets picked. This would leave the worst overall team with a 20/86.5 (23.1%) chance of being picked in the second lottery.
If they don't get picked in the second lottery, the best case scenario for them is for the third last team to be picked in the second lottery, which combined with the first lottery results, leaves the worst overall team with a 20/75 (26.7%) chance of being picked in the third lottery.
When we do all the calculations, that means that the worst overall team will pick no better than 4th (i.e. not win a lottery spot) AT LEAST 45.1% or the time.
I won't go into all of the possible compbinations, but it's safe to say that the worst overall team will only get a top three pick about 50-55% of the time.