[Tinordi]

http://www.ipolitics.ca/2014/08/17/t...hat-ekos-poll/

It’s not just that it shows the Conservatives in deep trouble, just over a year before the October 2015 election. It’s the size of the sample (2,620 Canadians) and the time in the field (an entire week from July 16-23) that make the findings impossible to dismiss.

This isn’t the one bad poll in 20. And it wasn’t a one-night stand.

The Liberals now lead the Conservatives by 38.7 to 25.6 per cent, with the NDP at 23.4 per cent. In effect, the Liberals have doubled their vote from the 18.9 per cent they received in the 2011 election, while the Conservatives have plummeted from 39.6 per cent to the mid-20s. The Liberal brand is back.
The Liberals lead in every province except the Tory heartland of Alberta and Saskatchewan. And where it matters most — British Columbia and Ontario — the Liberals lead not by a little but by a lot: 37 to 22 in B.C., where the NDP is actually in second place at 26 per cent, and 46 to 28 in Ontario. Those are blow-out numbers, pointing to a Liberal sweep of the lower B.C. mainland and the Greater Toronto Area.

Just for you Resolute:

Around the table at the morning meeting in the Langevin Block last week there was, perhaps, an impulse to wave off these numbers — because EKOS president Frank Graves is thought to tilt Liberal. If so, that would be incredibly stupid.

Graves called the Quebec and Ontario elections in April and June to within 1.5 points in both cases. And his methodology — a hybrid of telephone, automated response and Internet samples — is virtually bulletproof, with a margin of error of less than two points.