Quote:
Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan
Personally, I liked this thread better when it was about polls.
As for the poll in the OP, EKOS has a not insignificant liberal house effect, so my guess is there isn't any actual change here, but just a continuation of what we've been seeing for almost a year, which is still very bad news for Harper. I think he benefits somewhat from regional strength in the west, but his majority is built on a very thin foundation in Ontario, and I think he may be in real trouble in what will ultimately be the real battleground in this election, which is rural Ontario.
I do think the PCs are in trouble in Calgary Centre, but they should hold on to the rest of their seats in Alberta without too much difficulty.
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Yeah, in past elections we've sometimes had one thread for discussion of political opinion, platforms, etc. And one thread for polls, predictions, etc. Maybe we should do the same in the run-up to the next Federal election.
House effects aside, this is a 3.8% jump for the Liberals from the previous EKOS poll, and follows a Forum Research poll that had a 5% jump from the previous FR poll. Hopefully we'll get new polls from Angus Reid and Ipsos Reid. The last Angus Reid poll (in June) had the CPC with high 30s numbers in Ontario, but even that was a decline from previous polls. If the next Angus Reid poll shows further decline of the CPC numbers in Ontario down toward 30%, then I think it'll be full-on panic from the Conservatives.