[Tinordi]

But if Conservative strategists were counting on a Harper summer spent in the foreign policy limelight to restore their party’s shine in voting intentions, they have to be dismayed by the mid-summer polls.
The Liberals remain in the lead and the latest polls suggest the gap in their favour has been widening.

The most recent poll to be released, done by EKOS last month, pegs the Conservatives in the mid-20s, in a statistical tie with the NDP and 13 points behind the Liberals.

Like its competitors, this pollster put the Conservatives well behind the Liberals in Ontario and Atlantic Canada, distant also-rans in Quebec and leading only in Alberta and Saskatchewan. Some 2,620 respondents were polled.

Buried in the EKOS analysis — possibly because it is a provocative notion at this juncture — is the tentative proposition that, at this rate, the Conservatives could have a fight on their hands just to hang on to official Opposition in the next election.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2...ues_hbert.html

The EKOS poll released the other day is like a snowfall in August. It has the ability to shock even as it melts quickly away. It shocks because it challenges so many of our assumptions.

Shock #1 — The Conservatives may be in third place
It isn’t just that the EKOS poll shows the Harper Conservatives at a mere 26 per cent in popular support, barely ahead of the NDP. The Conservatives could be headed for third place in Parliament, behind the NDP as well as the Liberals, according to this seat projection by Paul Barber, who is the best at what he does

The projection, based on the EKOS poll, puts the NDP at 95 seats and leaves 86 for the Conservatives. (The Liberals, at 156, would win the election but fall well short of a majority.)

In other words, the Conservatives may be closer to an Ignatieff-style implosion than they are to another majority government.

http://www.ipolitics.ca/2014/08/12/f...hat-ekos-poll/

The Conservatives were down 2.9 points, averaging 28.1% support. The New Democrats were down 2.6 points to 21.7%, their lowest result since April 2011.

The Greens were down 0.2 points to 5.5%, while the Bloc Québécois was also down 0.2 points to 4.5%. Support for other parties stood at an average of 1.5%.


In British Columbia, the Liberals were up 6.2 points to 33%, while the NDP was down one point to 27.8%. The Conservatives dropped to third and their lowest level since December 2013, with a decrease of 6.1 points to 27.7%. The Greens were up 0.7 points to 10.3%.

The Conservatives fell 4.1 points in Alberta, but still led with 51.3%. The Liberals gained for the third consecutive month, jumping 6.6 points to 29.3%. That is their best since May 2013. The NDP was down 1.8 points to 11.1%, their lowest since December 2013. The Greens were down 1.2 points to 5.5%.

In the Prairies, the Conservatives slipped to their lowest level since December 2013, down 8.5 points to 35%. The Liberals were up 2.5 points to 33.4%, their best since February, while the NDP was up 3.1 points to 24.1%, its best since January. The Greens gained two points and averaged 6% support.

The Liberals made a big gain in Ontario, increasing 6.8 points to hit 44.5%. That is their highest support on record going back before 2009. That is especially surprising considering the Liberals had been holding steady in Ontario for the previous 11 months. The Conservatives were down 4.4 points to 30.9%, their lowest since May, while the NDP was down three points to just 17.7%. That is their lowest since March 2011 and, aside from a blip last month, have been dropping in Ontario for four consecutive months. The Greens were unchanged at 5.7%.

http://www.threehundredeight.com/201...-averages.html

Still about a year away from the next election. This is usually a slow news period politically but this poll has really raised some eyebrows.