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Originally Posted by octothorp
Good points Wookie, but what you're imagining is sort of a perfect storm of conditions, and while it is a possibility, it's extremely remote. It would probably be right to say that there's a chance that a H5N1 pandemic will result in an economic collapse, but it's really not that likely. There's only a small chance that H5N1 or some variant will become a pandemic, and if it does, the chances of it being the sort of deadly killer that you're talking about are far smaller. A million deaths is a realistic prediction. I think a couple hundred million would be necessary for the sort of effects that you're talking about.
The article at the beginning of this thread really shows the good news about this virus. The virus mutated, and within a matter of a couple weeks, everyone who contracted that particular strain was dead. Why is that good news? Short incubation times and high mortality. Spanish Influenza stayed dormant in some carriers for a very long time, and its fatality rate was about 3.5%. By comparison, the H5N1 virus has a fatility of around 50%, which really limits its contagiousness. In that way, it's more like the Ebola virus than the Spanish Influenza.
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Oh yeah, I know, was just sort of starting from a worldwide killer.. Assuming that then we're off to the races
lol..
So once that is rolling then I don't think all those factors are that outrrageos. But yeah, need for the virus to mutate, transfer effeciently, and not kill its hosts too fast
