Quote:
Originally Posted by MarkGio
This is exactly my thought pattern. Guys like Gill are the exception rather than the norm. There's such a poor probability working against Kanzig with his numbers. It's best to call him a wash and hope he proves otherwise, rather than start voting him as a better prospect than guys who are making healthy progressions
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This is the problem with stat watching though - you aren't seeing 'progression'. You have a point - there is a bit of a red flag when a guy doesn't increase his point totals, but that is NOT the only sign of progression.
Kanzig's first season involve him being terrible. Outright goon. Wasn't thought of as much.
His second season, he suddenly became good. He worked hard (there are few prospects as dedicated - just take a look at how hard he has worked physically) and is probably the most determined prospect the Flames have organizationally. This kid is a phenomenal athlete.
He started playing on the third pairing, moved up to the second pairing, and then started playing on the top pairing.
Last year, he was a top-pairing shut-down D from start to finish. He was plus 18 to finish off the year (not that +/- is that great of a stat, but for a shut-down D playing against the opposing teams' top lines nightly, it helps describe his over-all impact).
Points are not the only way to gauge progression - especially when shutdown D are concerned.
Listen to Lowry talk about the kid. Watch how mobile he is for his size. How smart he is at defending. He is a legitimate prospect - hardly an 'embarrassment'.
I am sure all you know is he is a huge unskilled guy. Listen to Button talk about him, or Conroy, or Lowry. Watch him during training camp and preseason (a guy like him is much better when he is using his strengths - namely his IQ and his physicality). If you didn't think much of him at prospect camp, that's fine - just remember that they were told to 'take it easy' out there (unlike the ######s up north that were crushing one another). A guy like Kanzig isn't going to show himself that well in that setting. I thought he was impressive last year, and his mobility this year looked even better (progression again - something you need to see in prospects).
He may still not be an NHL player (a 3rd round pick is always a bit of a longshot, no?), but was never (and still is not) an 'embarrassment' with zero shot of making it. Lowry is convinced he is going to make it. I am not convinced, but I think he has a good shot if he keeps it up (and he has one thing that few busts have - a crazy amount of determination).
As for why he was ranked a bit higher than you think - well, Kanzig is the type of guy who's ceiling is probably a max of 2nd pairing shutdown. However, he has the ability to change the game with his size. You have some powerfowards coming at your goalie? Kanzig will stop them. He will be an intimidating presence (hopefully ala McGrattan) but in a player you can throw out at any time and not worry about him hurting your team. I think he will end up making it as a bottom pairing guy myself. There is real value for a guy like him. Look how the Flames signed Engelland. There is value there. If Kanzig steps in at Engelland's spot 2-3 years down the line, that is going to save a lot of cap room for other players, but still retain a strong defensive presence and act as a 'deterrent' at the same time. Guys who are tough but can still play a regular shift are very valuable, even if you hate fighting in hockey.