When I was younger and made less, I always bought the warranty. At the time, i could afford the $200 for a warranty (even though I had worked a Christmas at futureshop and knew the margins) but couldn't afford the $2k again if the odds were against me.
Now if something breaks, it's probably time to buy a better / cheaper one and I can afford to do so.
Insurance is the same concept and you don't see anyone advising not to buy home insurance even though the odds (profit) are with the insurance company.
It's all about risk tolerance and if you can live with the 2-4% failure risk then save 10% on the price of the TV.
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