Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community - View Single Post - Once again Israel shows it doesn't screw around

CaptainCrunch · 07-30-2014, 09:13 AM

Well at this point there aren't a lot of options left, it seems like John Kerry has utterly failed to gain any meaningful traction that could lead to a ceasefire. The UN simply hasn't functioned there at all.

So what are the choices

1) Hamas and Israel agree to a ceasefire - not bloody likely. Israel will not agree to anything without assurances that the Rockets are gone and all tunnels are destroyed.

2) Hamas lays down their arms - They commit to stop fire rockets, properly prosecute other groups that fire rockets and destroy the rockets under international inspection, as well they commit to filling in the smuggling tunnels and the tunnels into Israel. Chance are next to zero, from a public relations standpoint this war is a huge bonus to them.

3) Israel calls a halt to their offensive - Not bloody likely, not until the last rocket launcher is gone, all the weapons caches are gone and the tunnels are gone. Israel is in this one for the long run, they have a definite end goal in mind.

So what can the international community do

1) The UN lays down peace-keepers - Unlikely to be effective, The concept of peacekeeping in my mind is dead. Unless your willing to put a peacekeeping force with teeth in it its going to fail. Hamas will hold them hostage, defy them and laugh when they die. Israel doesn't trust the UN or anyone when it comes to their security. A UN force will become the target of every extremist in Gaza period.

2) The Arab states such as Jordan and Egypt put the squeeze on Hamas and troops on the ground - realistically other Arab States don't really care about the Palestinian question, they were a great public relations sop for a long time "Look at the evil Zionists killing these people". But Hamas is firmly in Iran's sphere now and Egypt has tried to put the clamp on weapons smuggling into the strip. If they can broker a cease fire without cost they'll do that. But if it comes to boots on the ground, it won't happen.

Crystal Ball, what can each side do, what will they do

1) Israel - They have the choice of continuing what they're doing, which is going after weapons caches, launchers, tunnels and Hamas leadership until they perceived that the threats of attack are gone. The problem with that is its becoming a PR disaster that Israel is clearly losing. The only other option is to shift their offensive to a ground based seize every weapons storage site and launcher the old fashion dirty way with Infantry. The draw back is that these will become unsupported men with no artillery, heavy armor or air support. The casualty list will become extreme, because as we know, fighting a irregular force is bloody.

Israel's other option is to stay the course and finish the job and remove Hamas' ability to bring in and launch rockets, the problem with that is that the human cost to innocent Palestinians is really unacceptable. Even with the distribution of pamphlets and other warnings, People can't or won't leave target sites. I really want to emphasize that Israel won't stop this offensive until Hamas is either destroyed or there is a guarantee that the rocket attacks will stop.

Right now as this offense continues, Israel has to almost rely on media fatigue. We've seen it in Syria, when the world got tired of the butchering happening there and it went from the front page to the last. We've seen it in the Ukraine twice now, and we're certainly seeing it in Iraq. Israel is almost hoping that something bad happens somewhere else.

2) Palestinian (Hamas) options - They really only have one option, agreeing to a ceasefire won't help them reach their political end game. Their only option is to double down, increase missile launches into Israel to illicit attacks as a response and then control the story going out to the world. Hamas has had a public relations boon with this war, they've got piles of bodies and destroyed buildings. They've created a serious fracture in Israel's international alliances with the U.S. and Europe that probably won't be fixed. At the same time they've shown Iran that they're in this fight no matter what the costs which means more money and arms flooding in from China through Iran and from Iran itself.

07-30-2014, 09:13 AM	#1247
CaptainCrunch Norm! Join Date: Jun 2002 Exp:	Well at this point there aren't a lot of options left, it seems like John Kerry has utterly failed to gain any meaningful traction that could lead to a ceasefire. The UN simply hasn't functioned there at all. So what are the choices 1) Hamas and Israel agree to a ceasefire - not bloody likely. Israel will not agree to anything without assurances that the Rockets are gone and all tunnels are destroyed. 2) Hamas lays down their arms - They commit to stop fire rockets, properly prosecute other groups that fire rockets and destroy the rockets under international inspection, as well they commit to filling in the smuggling tunnels and the tunnels into Israel. Chance are next to zero, from a public relations standpoint this war is a huge bonus to them. 3) Israel calls a halt to their offensive - Not bloody likely, not until the last rocket launcher is gone, all the weapons caches are gone and the tunnels are gone. Israel is in this one for the long run, they have a definite end goal in mind. So what can the international community do 1) The UN lays down peace-keepers - Unlikely to be effective, The concept of peacekeeping in my mind is dead. Unless your willing to put a peacekeeping force with teeth in it its going to fail. Hamas will hold them hostage, defy them and laugh when they die. Israel doesn't trust the UN or anyone when it comes to their security. A UN force will become the target of every extremist in Gaza period. 2) The Arab states such as Jordan and Egypt put the squeeze on Hamas and troops on the ground - realistically other Arab States don't really care about the Palestinian question, they were a great public relations sop for a long time "Look at the evil Zionists killing these people". But Hamas is firmly in Iran's sphere now and Egypt has tried to put the clamp on weapons smuggling into the strip. If they can broker a cease fire without cost they'll do that. But if it comes to boots on the ground, it won't happen. Crystal Ball, what can each side do, what will they do 1) Israel - They have the choice of continuing what they're doing, which is going after weapons caches, launchers, tunnels and Hamas leadership until they perceived that the threats of attack are gone. The problem with that is its becoming a PR disaster that Israel is clearly losing. The only other option is to shift their offensive to a ground based seize every weapons storage site and launcher the old fashion dirty way with Infantry. The draw back is that these will become unsupported men with no artillery, heavy armor or air support. The casualty list will become extreme, because as we know, fighting a irregular force is bloody. Israel's other option is to stay the course and finish the job and remove Hamas' ability to bring in and launch rockets, the problem with that is that the human cost to innocent Palestinians is really unacceptable. Even with the distribution of pamphlets and other warnings, People can't or won't leave target sites. I really want to emphasize that Israel won't stop this offensive until Hamas is either destroyed or there is a guarantee that the rocket attacks will stop. Right now as this offense continues, Israel has to almost rely on media fatigue. We've seen it in Syria, when the world got tired of the butchering happening there and it went from the front page to the last. We've seen it in the Ukraine twice now, and we're certainly seeing it in Iraq. Israel is almost hoping that something bad happens somewhere else. 2) Palestinian (Hamas) options - They really only have one option, agreeing to a ceasefire won't help them reach their political end game. Their only option is to double down, increase missile launches into Israel to illicit attacks as a response and then control the story going out to the world. Hamas has had a public relations boon with this war, they've got piles of bodies and destroyed buildings. They've created a serious fracture in Israel's international alliances with the U.S. and Europe that probably won't be fixed. At the same time they've shown Iran that they're in this fight no matter what the costs which means more money and arms flooding in from China through Iran and from Iran itself.