Quote:
Originally Posted by ricardodw
Interesting how the hype machine works:
1. Gaudreau - far exceeded expectations (especially at the Worlds) moved up from 3 to #1 passing only Baertschi. (Monahan graduated). Huge relief that he signed with the flames rather than waiting a year to pick his team. Johnny likes us 
2. Bennett - still 2-3 years from the NHL but other than being physically weaker than anticipated hasn't done anything to move up or down since he was drafted 4th overall. last year Monahan #6 had a better impact hype and lived up to it.
3. Baertschi - huge disappointment. Took a big step backward and did not meet AHL expectations. Left over hype from the past 2 years left him only being passed by Gaudreau.
4. Poirier - did what was expected.... Did not exceed expectations. Should have been able to force his way on the Canadian Jr squad. Had no impact on the AHL playoffs... jumped from 9 to 4. Is this a sign of a weaker prospect poll this year or some sort of Poirier hype machine?
5. Granlund - exceeded expectations the most (other than Bouma and Gaudreau) Jumped into North American hockey and was a leader on the Heat. Jumped from 12th to 5th. Based on the last year should be ahead of Baertschi.
6. Klimchuk - same as Poirier. Did what was expected.. How this justified a jump from 10 to 6 I can't explain. Maybe CP has developed very low expectations for late 1st round picks. Klimchuck/Poirier look solid compared to Jankowski?
7. Wotherspoon - exceeded expectations. Improved over the year and may be close to NHL ready. Dropped from 6 to 7???
8. Reinhart - greatly exceeded expectations. If Poirier delivers as good a year as Reinhart did 2012-13 based on his #4 place Finish this year he will be in the mix with Bennett and the 2015 #1 pick for best prospect overall. Reinhart fought against the anti-hype to move up from 14 to 8. Have the Flames ever had a young guy leading the AHL team in scoring with almost a ppg that has not been their #1 prospect?
Now we have Gillies who fully met exceptions and was #4 last year dropping at least 5 places.... go figure. Why were we so excited about him last year? Did we expected he was going to have a .950 sav % (He had .936 same as the year before) His GA ballooned from 2.08 to 2.16. His win % went way up to 19-9-5 from 17-12-6 but he did lose 9 games. Maybe he was a better prospect last year as we did not have a legitimate Goalie prospect outside of him.. Brossoit was #17 in this poll mainly based on hope and his play as a 20 year old on the Oil Kings. |
Expectations are only a small part of the analysis for me. Past year's performance, age, trends, and new prospects in the system obviously affect where a player will land on the list. The problem is that a persons expectations can vary greatly and then whether that prospect exceeded/failed expectations can also vary. Where a prospect is drafted almost certainly influences his ranking, but for me I am considering what impact that player can make in the NHL and what are the odds of making it. Certainly benefits the high skill over the grit, but that is me.
If I understand your position, you think Baertschi is over rated and Reinhart under rated? That is a defensible opinion, but I disagree because I think he still has the scoring upside (based on what he has done at the NHL level) and was sent to the AHL to learn the 200 ft game. For Reinhart (and I hope I am wrong), I still see a slightly better B. Jones tweener (based on what he has done at the NHL level). Small sample sizes for sure, but that is my opinion/fear.
Hype machine has nothing to do with it. For the most part, I think CPers are doing a good job with the picks, even though I don't always agree with them.