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Originally Posted by Shnabdabber
CaptainCrunch, if it comes out that this was indeed no accident and NATO refuses to do more than stack troops along borders, what do you think the odds are that the US acts unilaterally on this situation, with more than just sanctions? I can't imagine the death of 25 odd Americans will be taken lightly, especially if the airliner was specifically targeted. I know it's early to say one way or another, but does anyone really want to poke the bear so to speak? However if this was deliberate, there's no way other nation states sit still on this is there?
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the U.S. going in unilaterally? I'd say 0. First of all this isn't the American Military of the 80's and 90's with a full on force in Europe. For the most part the American's have little in the way of offensive capability, they have a couple of I think medium Stryker Brigades, some infantry training cadres and some air bases but not a lot of offensive capability.
Just in the purest sense of the word, if the American's went in, they are facing a long supply line versus the Russians who have the equivalency of 2 armies on the Western Border including probably over 1000 tanks. The American's would have to shift the majority of their active air force into Europe to counter the Russian threat both from Aircraft and from anti air platforms.
It would take a long time to build up the necessary strategic stock piles to fight what would be a longer war.
The American military of the late 80's and early 90's would have won, I don't think that the American Military of the mid 2010's could build up in time and under fire and win.
Plus what would be the objective? To punish Russian Separatists? Because you can bet that Putin would jump in on that right away, seize the Ukraine and then dig in and attempt to bleed the Americans.
Plus since the Ukraine and Russia are side to side so most of Russia's air and military bases would remain in Russia proper, would America be willing to strike on Russian soil or allow the Russians to attack with impunity.
And the minute that you do that Russia becomes justified in going after the American sea borne supply line and as much as Americans don't want to believe it Russia Submarine technology is now equal with their new subs and upgraded subs being slightly faster and quieter then their American equivalents.
Its a battle that America can't win now, and wouldn't have the stomach to fight. Look I don't like Obama I think he's terrible, but I think that his only prudent move is to probably accept eh casualties, accept that the UN won't be able to do anything, accept that NATO can't do anything and accept that America has lost their foot hold in Eastern Europe.