My guess is, if the plane was shot down, some extremist Ukrainian or Russian seperatist/rebel/militia faction with state-provided missile hardware committed a rogue act by shooting down the airline, not following protocol for aircraft targeting, and acted independently from government influences to blame the other side and push the conflict to whole new heights.
If states were involved, this is going to get extremely ugly. Maybe not immediately with foreign powers, but the blame game will result in more violence in Eastern Ukraine.
If this is an accident, I doubt any apology is coming forward and each side will use it as a propaganda tool against the other.
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