[united]

Yeah, NHLE doesn't assume similar playing circumstances, but a player's would be harmed or helped by a drastic change in circumstances.

Jooris' drop is explained by using the ECAC-specific equivalency of 0.25 instead of the all-round college equivalency of 0.41. Using the revised version gives him:
2010-11 - 16.4
2011-12 - 15.1
2012-13 - 14.7
2013-14 - 13.7

The AHL translation is the toughest because it's really the only development league where you have a bunch of prospects mixed with a few journeymen or goons and not much in between. The broad AHL translation is an average of all players who moved from the AHL to NHL, which of course assumes a 21-year-old blue chip prospect would get the same opportunity and resulting NHL scoring as a 30-year-old journeyman. Of course the 21-year-old is probably getting called up to play 2nd or 3rd line minutes and power play, while the journeyman is getting 4th line minutes and penalty kill.

A bunch of research has been done on translation by age as well as points-per-game AHL scoring, and setting different NHLEs for each. I don't have the information in visual form, but wrote it down last night. For the 19-22-year-old age group, the following formula applies: [(AHL pts/game*0.32)+0.11]*82
That usually breaks down close to:
AHL pts/game-----NHLE
0.7+--------------0.45
0.6-0.69----------0.53
0.3-0.59----------0.57

Using Reinhart as an example, we now get:
2008-09 - 9.3
2009-10 - 15.1
2010-11 - 23.7
2011-12 - 27.3
2012-13 - 17.2
2013-14 - 34.1
He shows awesome progression then there is the noted sudden drop, followed by progression. Knight also had the noted big drop. I assume they are the exception and not the norm, and Troy Ward leaned heavily on the journeymen while pushing the first-year pros to the depth lines. But an avid Heat watcher could confirm or deny that.