Quote:
Originally Posted by wingmaker
There certainly are no right answers in a poll like this. It's great that everyone can pick the best prospect and use whatever criteria they want.
The one thing that irks me, though, is this idea that a prospect already has a determined "ceiling". What an asinine concept. I am willing to bet that David Moss's "ceiling" was a third/fourth line grinder when he was drafted in the 7th round, and yet he has played as a second line player for stretches of his career and scored 20 goals, which is higher than his "ceiling". Similarly, Iginla's "ceiling" was probably a second/first line winger, not a hall of fame, franchise player. Brodie's "ceiling" was supposed to be a second or third pairing defensman, and yet he is playing on a top pairing and still growing as a player. Giordano wasn't even drafted and yet was loosely considered for the norris last year. All of these players have far exceeded the "ceiling" that was assumed for them at the time they were draft eligible and in the early years of their development.
So people saying that Granlund or Poirier have lower ceilings than Baertschi does is just their guess at what type of player they will become. It has nothing to do with what their actual potential is. I see no reason why either of those players couldn't become top end offensive players given their current development curve. It doesn't mean that it will happen, but I don't know why we would assume what their potential is just because they were drafted later than Baertschi was.
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Ouch, that's a little harsh. I think it can be a little short sighted when people assume the ceiling is more than just theoretical mark based on achievements to date, but it is a concept used by many scouting and media outlets. Anyone who has been around for a while knows that ceilings are broken all the time.
But this is why I tend to look past the projected ceiling and favour players with qualities that will at least help them get a foot in the door, because a ceiling is useless if they don't possess qualities that keep them in the line-up full time (something that I am worried about with Baertschi). Once they are in, the sky is the limit.